MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put a little upward pressure on rates. Trading was thin surrounding the holiday. The data Monday was better than expected. Leading Economic Indicators rose 1.2% versus the expected 1.1% increase. News out of the Eurozone resulted in some flight to safety buying of US debt Tuesday morning as German growth forecasts were revised lower. Germany is seen as the bellwether of the Eurozone. Weekly jobless claims were 239K versus the expected 241K. Durable goods orders fell 1.2%. Analysts expected orders to rise 0.4%. Consumer sentiment printed at 98.5 which was better than expected. The minutes from the last Fed meeting indicated the jobs market was at or above “full employment” however inflation remained subdued. We ended the week unchanged to worse by 1/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| New Home Sales | Monday, Nov. 27, 10:00 am, et | 670K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| NAHB Housing Index | Tuesday, Nov. 28, 10:00 am, et | Up 0.8% | Moderately Important. A measure of single family housing. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Nov. 28, 10:00 am, et | 126 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Q3 GDP- Second Estimate | Wednesday, Nov. 29, 8:30 am, et | Up 3% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Fed “Beige Book” | Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2:00 pm, et | None | Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Thursday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.4%, Up 1.4% | Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Thursday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et | 245K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| ISM Index | Friday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et | 58.8 | Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
FED “BEIGE BOOK”
The Fed “Beige Book” is a summary of economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve regional districts. The release takes place eight times a year approximately two weeks ahead of each of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The report is used at the FOMC meetings, which tends to be one of the most influential events in the market.
