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MIG Market Watch, July 22nd, 2019

MIG Market Watch, July 22nd, 2019


MIG Market Watch, July 22nd, 2019

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices finished the week a little higher which helped rates improve. We started the week with a some back and forth trading Monday and Tuesday. Rates improved solidly Wednesday. The data releases through the week were mixed. Housing starts were weaker than expected at 1.253M versus 1.270M. Weekly jobless claims were near expectations. Claims came in at 216K versus the expected 215K. The Philadelphia Fed business conditions index surprised at a sharply higher 21.8, expected 5.0. Leading economic indicators fell 0.3%, expected unchanged. Traders saw a 97% chance of a Fed rate cut at the end of this month. Consumer sentiment was 98.4 versus the expected 98.8. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
FHFA House Price Index Monday, July 22,
10:00 am, et
Up 0.4% Moderately Important. A measure of single family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales Tuesday, July 23,
10:00 am, et
5.35M Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction Tuesday, July 23,
1:15 pm, et
None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
New Home Sales Wednesday, July 24,
10:00 am, et
630K Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction Wednesday, July 24,
1:15pm, et
None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Durable Goods Orders Thursday, July 25,
8:30 am, et
Up 2.2% Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, July 25,
8:30 am, et
205K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction Thursday, July 25,
1:15 pm, et
None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q2 Advance GDP Friday, July 26,
8:30 am, et
Up 3% Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

 

Existing Home Sales

The National Association of Realtors releases existing home sales data near the end of each month. The data is derived from a sampling of MLS data across the nation. The release shows the current sales rate for existing single-family, coops, and condos. A national figure and four regional figures are provided. The housing market is a critical component of the US economy. A house is usually one of the largest assets a consumer owns. Housing usually leads market recoveries or can signal trouble ahead. The housing industry remains mixed while some areas show strength, others languish. While the data usually isn’t a big market mover it still has the potential to result in some market volatility.

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