Translate:

EN

MIG Market Watch, July 29th, 2019

MIG Market Watch, July 29th, 2019


MIG Market Watch, July 29th, 2019

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which held rates in check.  The data generally showed economic strength with a tight labor market.  The FHFA Housing Price Index rose 0.1%. Traders expected prices to rise 0.4%. The Housing Price Index (HPI) is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices.  Existing home sales printed at 5.27M units versus the expected 5.3M.  New home sales printed at 646,000 versus the expected 660,000.  Durable goods rose a stronger than expected 2%.  Weekly jobless claims printed at 206K and continuing claims, a summation of all receiving benefits, at 1,676K. Expectations were for claims at 215K and continuing claims at 1,686K.  Q2 gross domestic product rose 2.1%.  Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays Tuesday, July 30,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.4%,
Up 0.4%
Important.  A measure of consumers’ ability to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation Tuesday, July 30,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.2% Important.  A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption.  Weaker figure may help rates improve.
Consumer Confidence Tuesday, July 30,
10:00 am, et
122 Important.  An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment Wednesday, July 31,
8:30 am, et
115K Important.  An indication of employment.  Weakness may bring lower rates.
Q2 Employment Cost Index Wednesday, July 31,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.8% Very important. A measure of wage inflation.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns Wednesday, July 31,
2:15 pm, et
25 basis point rate cut Important.  Most expect the Fed to change rates and some volatility may still surround the adjournment of this meeting.
ISM Index Thursday, Aug. 1,
10:00 am, et
51.4 Important.  A measure of manufacturer sentiment.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Employment Friday, Aug. 2,
8:30 am, et
3.7%,
Payrolls +225K
Very important.  An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Trade Data Friday, Aug. 2,
8:30 am, et
$56B deficit Important.  Affects the value of the dollar.  A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Factory Orders Friday, Aug. 2,
10:00 am, et
Down 0.2% Important.  A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

 

 

Fed Cut

What the Federal Reserve will do at their meeting this week is at the top of mind for global traders.  A month ago, market participants expected the Fed to cut rates by as much as 1/2% after the economy appeared to be slowing.  Since then, a string of STRONG data has been released putting into question what moves the Fed will make.  A 25-basis point cut is still expected but the odds of a larger cut now hover around 21%.  Be alert around the Fed meeting as volatility is possible.

Share

Leave a comment