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MIG Market Watch, July 25th, 2022

MIG Market Watch, July 25th, 2022


MIG Market Watch, July 25th, 2022
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which helped rates improve. Trading remained volatile but most of the movement was positive. Tame oil prices tied to increased foreign production and decreased US demand tempered some of the recent inflation fears. The Fed continued their MBS reinvestments which also helped rates. Most of the data showed economic weakness. NAHB housing was 55 vs 65. Existing home sales were 5.12M vs 5.35M. Weekly jobless claims were 251K vs 247K. The Philadelphia Fed index was negative 12.3 vs negative 1.2. Leading economic indicators fell 0.8% vs the expected 0.3% decline. Housing starts were 1559K vs 1550K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 3/4 to 7/8 of a discount point.


Looking Ahead
Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
FHFA House Price Index Tuesday, July 26,
10:00 am, et
Up 1.4% Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence Tuesday, July 26,
10:00 am, et
97.5 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
New Home Sales Tuesday, July 26,
10:00 am, et
700K Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Durable Goods Orders Wednesday, July 27,
8:30 am, et
Down 0.3% Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns Wednesday, July 27,
2:15 pm, et
75 basis point hike Important. Most expect the Fed to change rates. Volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Q2 GDP Thursday, July 28,
8:30 am, et
Down 0.2% Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, July 28,
8:30 am, et
235K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Q2 Employment Cost Index Friday, July 29,
8:30 am, et
Up 1.2% Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
PCE Core Inflation Friday, July 29,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.4% Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.

GDP and Recession

There are several definitions of recession. Financial publications often define it as two consecutive quarters of decline in quarterly real gross domestic product. Economists use monthly business cycles to define periods of expansion and contraction.

There is considerable debate about the Fed’s ability to raise rates without tipping the economy into recession. This week’s GDP release will give a very important look at where the economy stands. Real GDP in the first quarter fell 1.6%. A decline in the second quarter number this week will signal recession with our first definition above. Be cautious heading into the events this week as volatility is likely.

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Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at migonline.com Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
  • Not all programs are available in all states.
  • Some loan programs may not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Terms and conditions apply, which may include restrictions or limits per loan program.
  • Information is generally based on primary residence occupancy with no cash out when refinancing.
  • Unless otherwise stated, terms shown are estimates based in part on credit score of 700 or higher; owner occupancy, escrow account is established for taxes and insurance(s); debt-to-income ratio no higher than 43.0%; PMI applies to conventional loan programs over 80.0% LTV; VA,FHA & RD require insuring fees included in loan and/or payment; fixed rate, 30 year term.

An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020