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MIG Market Watch, September 26th, 2022

MIG Market Watch, September 26th, 2022


MIG Market Watch, September 26th, 2022
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week significantly lower which put upward pressure on rates. We started on a negative note ahead of the Fed meeting and only saw a slight reprieve from the selling pressure at pricing Wednesday morning. The Fed raised rates 75 basis points as expected and estimated additional rate hikes were likely into the end of the year and beyond. Fed projections for the Fed Funds Rate were 4.4% by the end of 2022 and 4.6% by the end of 2023. Chair Powell indicated price stability is the “bedrock” of the economy and that the Fed will take a restrictive stance for some time to eventually get inflation to their 2% target. The data varied but was overshadowed by inflation fears. Housing starts were 1575K vs 1420K. Existing home sales were 4.8M vs 4.73M. Weekly jobless claims were 213K vs 215K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by over a full discount point.


Looking Ahead
Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Durable Goods Orders Tuesday, Sept. 27,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.2% Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
FHFA House Price Index Tuesday, Sept. 27,
10:00 am, et
Down 0.1% Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence Tuesday, Sept. 27,
10:00 am, et
104.0 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
New Home Sales Tuesday, Sept. 27,
10:00 am, et
499K Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Q2 GDP Thursday, Sept. 29,
8:30 am, et
Down 0.6% Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Personal Income and Outlays Friday, Sept. 30,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.3%,
Up 0.2%
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation Friday, Sept. 30,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.4% Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, Sept. 30,
10:00 am, et
59.5 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

PCE

The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE price index. The report provides the average increase in costs for personal consumption expenditures. PCE is significant in that the Fed uses it in determining inflation as opposed to the prior use of the consumer price index. The PCE includes the price of spending for and on behalf of households. This includes health care spending paid for a household by a business. The CPI only reflects out of pocket expenses paid directly by consumers. The Fed continues to state that getting inflation in check is their primary concern.

Be cautious heading into the release. Data can surprise the financial markets from time to time. Mortgage interest rates will likely spike higher in the short term if the PCE core reading is higher than expected. A reading in line with expectations will likely help rates stay in check.

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Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at migonline.com Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
  • Not all programs are available in all states.
  • Some loan programs may not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Terms and conditions apply, which may include restrictions or limits per loan program.
  • Information is generally based on primary residence occupancy with no cash out when refinancing.
  • Unless otherwise stated, terms shown are estimates based in part on credit score of 700 or higher; owner occupancy, escrow account is established for taxes and insurance(s); debt-to-income ratio no higher than 43.0%; PMI applies to conventional loan programs over 80.0% LTV; VA,FHA & RD require insuring fees included in loan and/or payment; fixed rate, 30 year term.

An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020