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MIG Market Watch, November 14th, 2022

MIG Market Watch, November 14th, 2022


MIG Market Watch, November 14th, 2022
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply higher which put downward pressure on rates. We started the week on a negative note amid continued inflation fears. The mid-term elections resulted in some back-and-forth movements. Favorable inflation data helped us end the shortened trading week on a strongly positive note (see article below.) The two Treasury auctions resulted in solid foreign demand for US debt instruments. There was not much data. Weekly jobless claims were 225K vs the expected 220K. The 4-week average was approximately 219K. This was a sign that the Fed rate hikes may be impacting the labor market as they intend. Continuing claims were 1493K vs the prior 1487K. There was no trading Friday in honor of Veterans Day. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by over a full discount point.


Looking Ahead
Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Producer Price Index Tuesday, Nov. 15,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.4%,
Core up 0.3%
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Retail Sales Wednesday, Nov. 16,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.8% Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Industrial Production Wednesday, Nov. 16,
9:15 am, et
Up 0.2% Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization Wednesday, Nov. 16,
9:15 am, et
80.3% Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates.
NAHB Housing Index Wednesday, Nov. 16,
10:00 am, et
38 Moderately Important. A measure of single-family housing. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Housing Starts Thursday, Nov. 17,
8:30 am, et
1.42M Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey Thursday, Nov. 17,
10:00 am, et
Down 12.2 Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales Friday, Nov. 18,
10:00 am, et
Down 1.5% Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators Friday, Nov. 18,
10:00 am, et
Down 0.3% Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.

Tame Inflation

What a difference a day makes! The consumer price index report came in lower-than-expected last Thursday and mortgage rates improved dramatically as a result. Consumer prices rose 0.4% vs 0.7%. The core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% vs 0.5%. This inflation report is the first piece of the puzzle needed for the Fed to pivot from their continued 75 basis point rate hikes. The next Fed meeting is December 14th. Another rate hike is expected but now the magnitude is more uncertain. The Fed could pivot completely early next year if we continue to receive good inflation readings in coming weeks.

Remember, caution is still key. It is not uncommon for rates to whipsaw up and down as of late. There remains a lot of uncertainty about inflation and future rate spikes are possible. Most borrowers should consider taking advantage of significant rate decreases like we saw Thursday morning when they occur.

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Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at migonline.com Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
  • Not all programs are available in all states.
  • Some loan programs may not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Terms and conditions apply, which may include restrictions or limits per loan program.
  • Information is generally based on primary residence occupancy with no cash out when refinancing.
  • Unless otherwise stated, terms shown are estimates based in part on credit score of 700 or higher; owner occupancy, escrow account is established for taxes and insurance(s); debt-to-income ratio no higher than 43.0%; PMI applies to conventional loan programs over 80.0% LTV; VA,FHA & RD require insuring fees included in loan and/or payment; fixed rate, 30 year term.

An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020