MIG Market Watch, November 21st, 2022

MIG Market Watch, November 21st, 2022

MIG Market Watch, November 21st, 2022
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which held rates flat despite considerable volatility throughout the week. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday the October inflation report was “just one data point.” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard noted that “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.” The data was mixed. Producer prices rose 0.2% vs 0.4% and the core was unchanged vs 0.3%. Industrial production fell 0.1% vs unchanged. Capacity use was 79.9 vs 80.3. NAHB housing was 33 vs 36. Retail sales rose 1.3% vs 0.9%. Housing starts were 1425K vs 1410K. Weekly jobless claims were 222K vs 225K. The Philadelphia Fed business conditions index was -7.1 vs -5.0. Existing home sales were 4.43M vs 4.38M. LEI fell 0.8% vs down 0.5%. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with no changes in discount points.

Looking Ahead
Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Weekly Jobless Claims Wednesday, Nov. 23,
8:30 am, et
220K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Durable Goods Orders Wednesday, Nov. 23,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.3% Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales Wednesday, Nov. 23,
10:00 am, et
578K Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Wednesday, Nov. 23,
10:00 am, et
54.8 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Thanksgiving Holiday Thursday, Nov. 24 Important. No trading Thursday. Shortened trading day Friday with a 2pm et close. Thin trading conditions likely.

Durable Goods Orders

Durable goods orders are generally believed to be a precursor of activity in the manufacturing sector because manufacturing must have an order before considering an increase in production. Conversely, a decrease in orders eventually causes production to be scaled back; otherwise, the manufacturer accumulates inventories, which must be financed.

Unfortunately, durable goods orders data has many drawbacks. The first problem with the orders data is that they are extremely volatile. The volatility of the data usually is attributed to the civilian aircraft and defense components of the figure. For example, if Boeing has a big order for one of its jumbo jets, the civilian aircraft category can change by $3-4 billion. The same scenario is evident when an aircraft carrier is ordered, surges in the defense category result. The second problem with the data is that orders are continuously being revised. There are many times in the past when the advance report on durables showed an increase while a revision a week later showed a decrease. The revised data is found in the report on manufacturing orders, shipments, and inventories.

Since the data is very volatile and difficult to forecast, there is quite often a huge disparity between the actual release and the initial projections. Despite the variances the report has the potential to cause mortgage interest rate volatility. Therefore, borrowers should be cautious heading into the data considering this is a holiday week with trading conditions likely to be thin.


Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
  • Not all programs are available in all states.
  • Some loan programs may not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Terms and conditions apply, which may include restrictions or limits per loan program.
  • Information is generally based on primary residence occupancy with no cash out when refinancing.
  • Unless otherwise stated, terms shown are estimates based in part on credit score of 700 or higher; owner occupancy, escrow account is established for taxes and insurance(s); debt-to-income ratio no higher than 43.0%; PMI applies to conventional loan programs over 80.0% LTV; VA,FHA & RD require insuring fees included in loan and/or payment; fixed rate, 30 year term.

An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020