![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. Trading was up and down but within a relatively narrow range throughout the first portion of the week. A selloff Thursday afternoon and Friday morning closed the week on a negative note. There were several data releases, and the results were mixed. NAHB housing was 42 vs 44. Industrial production rose 0.6% vs 0.3%. Capacity use was 78.8% vs 78.4%. Housing starts came in at 1.353M vs 1.3M. Leading economic indicators fell 0.2% vs 0.3%. Weekly jobless claims were 243K vs 230K. The Philadelphia Fed index was 13.9 vs 2.9. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Home Sales | Tuesday, July 23, 10:00 am, et | 4M | Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| 2-year Treasury Note Auction | Tuesday, July 23, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| New Home Sales | Wednesday, July 24, 10:00 am, et | 640K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| 5-year Treasury Note Auction | Wednesday, July 24, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Durable Goods Orders | Thursday, July 25, 8:30 am, et | Up 2% | Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Q2 GDP | Thursday, July 25, 8:30 am, et | Up 1.1% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Friday, July 26, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.4%, Up 0.3% | Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Friday, July 26, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Friday, July 26, 10:00 am, et | 66.0 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Existing Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors releases existing home sales data near the end of each month. The data is derived from a sampling of MLS data across the nation. The release shows the current sales rate for existing single-family, coops, and condos. A national figure and four regional figures are provided. The housing market is a critical component of the US economy. A house is usually one of the largest assets a consumer owns. Housing usually leads market recoveries or can signal trouble ahead. The future of the housing market remains uncertain. While the release usually is not a big market mover it still has the potential to result in some market volatility and provides a snapshot of the health of the housing industry.
