![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which kept rates flat. All the changes were within a very narrow range in contrast to prior weeks. The data was mixed but the housing sector remained solid despite the higher interest rate environment. NAHB housing was 46 vs 44. Housing starts were 1.311M vs 1.33M. Existing home sales were 3.96M vs 3.93M. Weekly jobless claims were 213K vs 220K. The Philadelphia Fed business conditions index was 56.6 vs 36.7. The manufacturing component fell 5.5 vs an expected reading of positive 8. Consumer Sentiment took a bit of a hit with a reading of 71.8 vs 73.7. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| FHFA House Price Index | Tuesday, Nov. 26, 10:00 am, et | Up 0.3% | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Nov. 26, 10:00 am, et | 112 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| New Home Sales | Tuesday, Nov. 26, 10:00 am, et | 730K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Fed Minutes | Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2:00 pm, et | None | Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed. |
| Durable Goods Orders | Wednesday, Nov. 27, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Q3 GDP | Wednesday, Nov. 27, 8:30 am, et | Up 2.8% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Wednesday, Nov. 27, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.3%, Up 0.4% | Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Wednesday, Nov. 27, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
New Home Sales
New Home Sales data is compiled monthly by the Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau and is gathered from builders throughout the country. The data represents new home sales for the nation as well as four areas of the country: the Northeast, the Midwest, the South, and the West. Information on the average price of a home, the number of homes for sale, and the supply of unsold homes are also provided.
The data is an important indicator because it shows any strength or weakness in the housing sector. The housing sector data is valuable because when consumer spending changes, it appears in this sector first. Consequently, a chain reaction typically occurs. A slowdown in new home sales tends to lead to a slowdown in housing starts, which will continue to affect other indicators possibly continuing the economic worries, as has been the recent concern of most everyone. New Home Sales data is often volatile and difficult to predict. Most analysts look at a three-month average in order to see any trends in the growth rate. The data remains significant in showing the condition of housing.
