MIG Market Watch, January 12th, 2026

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which held rates steady. Trading was very quiet the beginning of the week, but volatility picked up Thursday and Friday as an anticipated Supreme Court ruling on tariffs was delayed and the Fed’s 2026 rate path remained murky. The economic data was mixed. ISM Index was 47.9 vs 48.3. The trade deficit was $29.4B vs $58.9B. Weekly jobless claims were 208K vs 200K. Unemployment was 4.4% vs 4.5%. Payrolls rose 50K vs 60K. Consumer sentiment was 54.0 vs 53.5. The preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations for January came in at 4.2%, which held the previous month’s final reading, but fanned inflation uncertainty. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator		Release
Date & Time		Consensus
Estimate
Analysis
Treasury Auctions BeginMonday, Jan. 12, 1:15 pm, etNoneImportant. 3Y and 10Y Notes on Monday, 30Y Bonds on Tuesday. Weak demand could pressure rates higher.
Consumer Price IndexTuesday, Jan. 13, 8:30 am, etUp 0.3%, Core up 0.3%Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
New Home SalesTuesday, Jan. 13, 10:00 am, et710KImportant. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Producer Price IndexWednesday, Jan. 14, 8:30 am, etUp 0.3%, Core up 0.2%Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Retail SalesWednesday, Jan. 14, 8:30 am, etUp 0.4%Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Existing Home SalesWednesday, Jan. 14, 10:00 am, et4.2MLow importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed SurveyThursday, Jan. 15, 10:00 am, et41.4Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Industrial ProductionFriday, Jan. 16, 9:15 am, etUp 0.2%Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Capacity UtilizationFriday, Jan. 16, 9:15 am, et76%Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Busy Week

Economic data is the number one reason mortgage interest rates move daily. Data is compiled from numerous sources and comes in two flavors, economic growth and inflation. Some releases are more important than others and thus are more likely to cause wider swings in mortgage rates. Rates move in relation to the deviation from expectations. We have significant releases almost each day of this week which is not common. The potential for mortgage interest rate volatility is greater as a result. Volatility can be the enemy as we saw the beginning of last month as traders trimmed expectations for how aggressively the Fed will ease and reassessed the timing and size of upcoming rate cuts. Any indication of strength in the data will likely result in higher mortgage interest rates so remain cautious.