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MIG Market Watch, January 10th

MIG Market Watch, January 10th


MIG Market Watch, January 10th
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put significant upward pressure on rates. The MBS market had not experienced such spikes in a very long time. There were large rate increases Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Inflation fears, anticipated Fed adjustments, and general uncertainty dominated trading. The data was mixed. ISM Index was 58.7 vs 60. ADP employment rose 807K vs 420K. Weekly jobless claims were 207K vs 195K. The trade deficit was $80.2B vs $70B. Factory orders rose 1.6% vs 1.2%. Unemployment was 3.9% vs 4.1%, payrolls rose 199K vs 400K, and average hourly earnings rose 0.6% vs 0.4%. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by over a full discount point.


Looking Ahead
Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Consumer Price Index Wednesday, Jan. 12,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.4%,
Core up 0.5%
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, Jan. 13,
8:30 am, et
205K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Producer Price Index Thursday, Jan. 13,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.4%,
Core up 0.5%
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Retail Sales Friday, Jan. 14,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.4% Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Industrial Production Friday, Jan. 14,
9:15 am, et
Up 0.4% Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A lower-than-expected increase may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization Friday, Jan. 14,
9:15 am, et
76.9% Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, Jan. 14,
10:00 am, et
70.6 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Fed Minutes

The minutes from the December Fed meeting released last week caused mortgage interest rate increases. The Fed reported, “Regarding the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, expectations for a reduction in policy accommodation shifted forward notably. Respondents to the Open Market Desk’s surveys of primary dealers and market participants broadly projected that the Committee would quicken the pace of reduction in the Federal Reserve’s net purchases of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and the median respondent projected net asset purchases to end in March 2022. The median respondent’s projected timing for the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate also moved earlier from the first quarter of 2023 to June 2022.

Although the Desk surveys and interest rate futures indicated expectations for earlier increases in the target range than at the time of the November meeting, expectations for the federal funds rate at longer horizons did not appear to have risen. In addition, the average of probability distributions for the federal funds rate reported in the Desk surveys suggested considerable uncertainty about the path of the federal funds rate, as survey respondents placed significant odds on a range of outcomes. With the likely timing of the beginning of the removal of policy accommodation considered closer, market participants began to discuss how balance sheet policy might feature in the Committee’s plan for reducing accommodation when warranted, although expectations for the timing of the first decline in the balance sheet were diffuse.”

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Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at migonline.com Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
  • Not all programs are available in all states.
  • Some loan programs may not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Terms and conditions apply, which may include restrictions or limits per loan program.
  • Information is generally based on primary residence occupancy with no cash out when refinancing.
  • Unless otherwise stated, terms shown are estimates based in part on credit score of 700 or higher; owner occupancy, escrow account is established for taxes and insurance(s); debt-to-income ratio no higher than 43.0%; PMI applies to conventional loan programs over 80.0% LTV; VA,FHA & RD require insuring fees included in loan and/or payment; fixed rate, 30 year term.

An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020