{"id":5442,"date":"2020-09-28T09:00:48","date_gmt":"2020-09-28T13:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/?p=5442"},"modified":"2020-09-25T15:08:00","modified_gmt":"2020-09-25T19:08:00","slug":"mig-market-watch-september-28th-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2020\/09\/28\/mig-market-watch-september-28th-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"MIG Market Watch, September 28th, 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

MARKET COMMENT<\/strong>
\nMortgage bond prices finished the week slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Stocks struggled the early portion of the week but showed some rebounding Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Existing home sales were 6M as expected. The 2-year Treasury note auction was weaker than average. Weekly jobless claims were 870K vs the expected 825K. New home sales were 1.011M vs the expected 875K. Durable goods orders rose 0.4% vs the expected 1.5% increase. The Fed continued their mortgage-backed securities buying with billions of dollars of purchases daily which kept most of the changes within narrow ranges. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1\/4 to 3\/8 of a discount point.<\/p>\n

LOOKING AHEAD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Economic Indicator<\/strong><\/td>\nRelease Date & Time<\/strong><\/td>\nConsensus Estimate<\/strong><\/td>\nAnalysis<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Consumer Confidence<\/td>\nTuesday, Sept. 29,
\n10:00 am, et<\/td>\n		88<\/td>\nImportant. An indication of consumers\u2019 willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ADP Employment<\/td>\nWednesday, Sept. 30,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		650K<\/td>\nImportant. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Q2 GDP<\/td>\nWednesday, Sept. 30,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		Down 31.7%<\/td>\nVery important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Personal Income and Outlays<\/td>\nThursday, Oct. 1,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		Down 2.3%,
\nUp 0.7%<\/td>\n		Important. A measure of consumers\u2019 ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PCE Core Inflation<\/td>\nThursday, Oct. 1,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		Up 0.3%<\/td>\nImportant. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly Jobless Claims<\/td>\nThursday, Oct. 1,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		800K<\/td>\nImportant. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Employment<\/td>\nFriday, Oct. 2,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		8.3%,
\nPayrolls +860K<\/td>\n		Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Factory Orders<\/td>\nFriday, Oct. 2,
\n10:00 am, et<\/td>\n		Up 1.3%<\/td>\nImportant. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/td>\nFriday, Oct. 2,
\n10:00 am, et<\/td>\n		79<\/td>\nImportant. An indication of consumers\u2019 willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

PCE<\/strong>
\nThe US Department of Commerce\u2019s Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE price index. The report provides the average increase in costs for personal consumption expenditures. PCE is significant in that the Fed uses it in determining inflation as opposed to the prior use of the consumer price index. The PCE includes the price of spending for and on behalf of households. This includes health care spending paid for a household by a business. The CPI only reflects out of pocket expenses paid directly by consumers. The Fed continues to state that inflation is in check. However, data can surprise the financial markets from time to time. Mortgage interest rates will likely spike higher in the short term if the PCE core reading is higher than expected. A reading in line with expectations will likely help rates stay in check.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MARKET COMMENT Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Stocks struggled the early portion of the week but showed some rebounding Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Existing home sales were 6M as expected. The 2-year Treasury note auction was weaker than average. Weekly jobless claims were … Continue reading MIG Market Watch, September 28th, 2020<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5444,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-watch"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5442"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5442\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5443,"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5442\/revisions\/5443"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}