{"id":5832,"date":"2021-03-01T08:00:35","date_gmt":"2021-03-01T13:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/?p=5832"},"modified":"2021-02-26T18:00:38","modified_gmt":"2021-02-26T23:00:38","slug":"mig-market-watch-march-1st-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/01\/mig-market-watch-march-1st-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"MIG Market Watch, March 1st, 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5>Market Comment<\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put significant upward pressure on rates. Rates worsened almost every day of the trading week. Inflation fears continued as officials and investors debated the effects of additional stimulus. Former Treasury Summers warned the proposed stimulus might result in &#8220;inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation, with consequences for the value of the dollar and financial stability.&#8221; Treasury Secretary Yellen countered that inflation risks are possible but noted that Fed officials have tools to address those potential scenarios. The data was solid. Consumer confidence was 91.3 vs 91. New home sales were 923K vs 855K. Weekly jobless claims were 730K vs the expected 820K. Durable goods rose 3.4% vs 1.2%. GDP rose 4.1% as expected. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1 \u00bd to 2 full discount points.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>Looking Ahead<\/h5>\n<table class=\"table table-bordered\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Economic <\/strong><strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Release <\/strong><strong>Date &amp; Time<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Consensus <\/strong><strong>Estimate<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Analysis<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">ISM Index<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Monday, March 1,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">10:00 am, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">58.9<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Construction Spending<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Monday, March 1,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">10:00 am, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Up 0.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">ADP Employment<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Wednesday, March 3,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">8:30 am, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">168K<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Fed \u201cBeige Book\u201d<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Wednesday, March 3,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">2:00 pm, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">None<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Weekly Jobless Claims<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Thursday, March 4,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">8:30 am, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">820K<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Revised Q4 Productivity<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Thursday, March 4,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">8:30 am, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Down 3.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Factory Orders<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Thursday, March 4,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">10:00 am, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Up 1.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Employment<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Friday, March 5,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">8:30 am, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">6.4%,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">Payrolls +95K<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Trade Data<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Friday, March 5,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">8:30 am, et<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"15%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">$67.5B deficit<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"35%\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>Inflation<\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Inflation is the enemy of fixed income investments such as mortgage-backed securities. Rising inflation causes prices to fall and rates to rise. We experienced massive mortgage interest rate spikes the past few weeks as inflation expectations changed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Fed Chair Powell assured Congress that the economic recovery was still uncertain and downplayed the inflation risks. He stated, \u201cWe do expect that inflation will move up. But we don\u2019t expect the effects on inflation will be particularly large or persistent.\u201d We hope Powell is correct but in the short-term the mortgage rate increases are real and large. Be very cautious with any float\/lock decisions in this period of mortgage interest rate volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Comment Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put significant upward pressure on rates. Rates worsened almost every day of the trading week. Inflation fears continued as officials and investors debated the effects of additional stimulus. Former Treasury Summers warned the proposed stimulus might result in &#8220;inflationary pressures of a kind we &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/01\/mig-market-watch-march-1st-2021\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">MIG Market Watch, March 1st, 2021<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5833,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>MIG Market Watch, March 1st, 2021 - Mortgage Investors Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/01\/mig-market-watch-march-1st-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MIG Market Watch, March 1st, 2021 - Mortgage Investors Group\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market Comment Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put significant upward pressure on rates. 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