Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged to slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Rates were volatile throughout the week. Positive movements occurred early in response to Treasury Secretary Yellen\u2019s remarks that indicated, \u201cI think we’ll see a substantial reduction in inflation in the year ahead.\u201d Tame inflation readings also helped. Consumer prices rose 0.1% vs 0.3%. The core rose 0.2% vs 0.3%. The Fed raised rates 50 basis points as expected which resulted in large market swings. The rest of the data was mixed. Retail sales fell 0.6% vs the expected 0.1% decline. Weekly jobless claims were 211K vs 227K. Retail sales fell 0.6% vs the expected 0.1% decline. Mortgage interest rates finished the week unchanged to better by approximately 1\/8 of a discount point.<\/p>\n
Economic <\/strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/td>\n| Release <\/strong>Date & Time<\/strong><\/td>\n | Consensus <\/strong>Estimate<\/strong><\/td>\n | Analysis<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Housing Starts<\/td>\n | Tuesday, Dec. 20, | \n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n 1.415M<\/td>\n | Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Existing Home Sales<\/td>\n | Wednesday, Dec. 21, | \n10:00 am, et<\/td>\n 4.2M<\/td>\n | Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Q3 GDP<\/td>\n | Thursday, Dec. 22, | \n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n Up 2.9%<\/td>\n | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Weekly Jobless Claims<\/td>\n | Thursday, Dec. 22, | \n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n 225K<\/td>\n | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Durable Goods Orders<\/td>\n | Friday, Dec. 23, | \n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n Up 0.5%<\/td>\n | Important. An indication of the demand for \u201cbig ticket\u201d items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Personal Income and Outlays<\/td>\n | Friday, Dec. 23, | \n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n Up 0.2%, | \nUp 0.7%<\/td>\n Important. A measure of consumers\u2019 ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Capacity Utilization<\/td>\n | Thursday, Dec. 15, | \n9:15 am, et<\/td>\n 79.8%<\/td>\n | Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | PCE Core Inflation<\/td>\n | Friday, Dec. 23, | \n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n Up 0.3%<\/td>\n | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | New Home Sales<\/td>\n | Friday, Dec. 23, | \n10:00 am, et<\/td>\n 600K<\/td>\n | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/td>\n | Friday, Dec. 23, | \n10:00 am, et<\/td>\n 55<\/td>\n | Important. An indication of consumers\u2019 willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n | \n Income & Outlays<\/h5>\nThe personal income and outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of future consumer demand. The personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and salaries. The outlays component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services. Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into consumer economic standing and consumption. The report is closely watched as the consumer remains a vital component of the US economy. The release this week has the potential to move the financial markets. Now is a good time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at their current levels to avoid market volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Market Comment Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged to slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Rates were volatile throughout the week. Positive movements occurred early in response to Treasury Secretary Yellen\u2019s remarks that indicated, \u201cI think we’ll see a substantial reduction in inflation in the year ahead.\u201d Tame inflation … Continue reading MIG Market Watch, December 19th, 2022<\/span> |