{"id":8237,"date":"2024-01-22T09:33:07","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T14:33:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/?p=8237"},"modified":"2024-01-22T09:33:07","modified_gmt":"2024-01-22T14:33:07","slug":"mig-market-watch-january-22nd-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2024\/01\/22\/mig-market-watch-january-22nd-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"MIG Market Watch, January 22nd, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
Market Comment<\/h5>\n

Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put upward pressure on rates. Strong economic data set the tone for heavy selling pressure as traders adjusted their Fed pivot sentiments. Industrial production rose 0.1% vs 0%. Capacity use was 78.6% vs 78.7%. NAHB housing was 44 vs 39. Retail sales rose 0.6% vs 0.4%. Housing starts were 1.46M vs 1.426M. Weekly jobless claims were 187K vs 207K. Existing home sales were 3.78M vs 3.82M. Consumer sentiment was 78.8 vs 78. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 3\/4 of a discount point.<\/p>\n

\n
Looking Ahead<\/h5>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Economic <\/strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/td>\nRelease <\/strong>Date & Time<\/strong><\/td>\nConsensus <\/strong>Estimate<\/strong><\/td>\nAnalysis<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Leading Economic Indicators<\/td>\nMonday, Jan. 22,
\n10:00 am, et<\/td>\n		Down 0.3%<\/td>\nImportant. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2-year Treasury Note Auction<\/td>\nTuesday, Jan. 23,
\n1:15 pm, et<\/td>\n		None<\/td>\nImportant. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5-year Treasury Note Auction<\/td>\nWednesday, Jan. 24,
\n1:15 pm, et<\/td>\n		None<\/td>\nImportant. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Durable Goods Orders<\/td>\nThursday, Jan. 25,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		Up 1.1%<\/td>\nImportant. An indication of the demand for \u201cbig ticket\u201d items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly Jobless Claims<\/td>\nThursday, Jan. 25,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		200K<\/td>\nImportant. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Q4 GDP<\/td>\nThursday, Jan. 25,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		Up 3.1%<\/td>\nVery important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Home Sales<\/td>\nThursday, Jan. 25,
\n10:00 am, et<\/td>\n		640K<\/td>\nImportant. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Personal Income and Outlays<\/td>\nFriday, Jan. 26,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		Up 0.3%,
\nUp 0.4%<\/td>\n		Important. A measure of consumers\u2019 ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PCE Core Inflation<\/td>\nFriday, Jan. 26,
\n8:30 am, et<\/td>\n		Up 0.2%<\/td>\nImportant. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n
Term Premia<\/h5>\n

In standard economic theory yields are composed of two factors: expectations for the future path of rates and term premium. The Fed indicates, \u201cThe term premium is defined as the compensation that investors require for bearing the risk that interest rates may change over the life of the bond. Since the term premium is not directly observable, it must be estimated, most often from financial and macroeconomic variables.\u201d The Fed issues US Treasury term premia estimates from several models. These models tend to trend in the same direction, just like MBSs and Treasuries, but often show large gaps and discrepancies.<\/p>\n

This is important to remember when contemplating where mortgage interest rates will be in the future. The results from the most sophisticated models and the most powerful institutions are constantly revised. With that in mind, a cautious approach to float\/lock decisions is prudent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Comment Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put upward pressure on rates. Strong economic data set the tone for heavy selling pressure as traders adjusted their Fed pivot sentiments. Industrial production rose 0.1% vs 0%. Capacity use was 78.6% vs 78.7%. NAHB housing was 44 vs 39. Retail sales rose 0.6% … Continue reading MIG Market Watch, January 22nd, 2024<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8241,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nMIG Market Watch, January 22nd, 2024 - Mortgage Investors Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2024\/01\/22\/mig-market-watch-january-22nd-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MIG Market Watch, January 22nd, 2024 - Mortgage Investors Group\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market Comment Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put upward pressure on rates. 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