{"id":9221,"date":"2025-09-08T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/?p=9221"},"modified":"2025-09-05T16:17:05","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T20:17:05","slug":"mig-market-watch-september-8th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2025\/09\/08\/mig-market-watch-september-8th-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MIG Market Watch, September 8th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Market Comment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which put downward pressure on rates. The MBS market was quiet most of the week and rallied Friday morning tied to weak payrolls data. The other data was mixed. ISM Index was 48.7 vs 49. Factory orders fell 1.3% vs the expected 1.4% decline. ADP employment came in with a weaker reading of 54K vs 65K. Productivity rose 3.3% vs 2.7%. The trade deficit was $78.3B vs $75.7B. The Fed Beige Book reported activity in the United States saw &#8220;little or no change&#8221; and many areas saw &#8220;moderate or modest&#8221; price increases. The Fed noted \u201cmany Districts reporting that tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs.\u201d Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 3\/8 of a discount point.<br><br><br><strong>LOOKING AHEAD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Economic<br>Indicator<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Release<br>Date &amp; Time<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Consensus<br>Estimate<\/strong><\/td><td><strong><br>Analysis<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3-year Treasury Note Auction<\/td><td>Tuesday, Sept. 9, 1:15 pm, et<\/td><td>None<\/td><td>Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Producer Price Index<\/td><td>Wednesday, Sept. 10, 8:30 am, et<\/td><td>Up 0.3%, Core up 0.3%<\/td><td>Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10-year Treasury Note Auction<\/td><td>Wednesday, Sept. 10, 1:15 pm, et<\/td><td>None<\/td><td>Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Consumer Price Index<\/td><td>Thursday, Sept. 11, 8:30 am, et<\/td><td>Up 0.3%, Core up 0.3%<\/td><td>Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Weekly Jobless Claims<\/td><td>Thursday, Sept. 11, 8:30 am, et<\/td><td>240K<\/td><td>Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>30-year Treasury Bond Auction<\/td><td>Thursday, Sept. 11, 1:15 pm, et<\/td><td>None<\/td><td>Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/td><td>Friday, Sept. 12, 10:00 am, et<\/td><td>59.2<\/td><td>Important. An indication of consumers\u2019 willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Employment Results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Summary each month commonly referred to as the Employment Report. The summary \u201cpresents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.\u201d<br><br>The release last Friday showed, \u201cTotal nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April.\u201d In addition, \u201cThe unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.\u201d Analysts expected payrolls to increase 75,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent.<br><br>The short-term reaction was very positive for mortgage interest rates as mortgage-backed securities prices rose and rates fell Friday morning. The significant weakness on the payrolls side solidified market sentiment that the Fed will cut rates September 17th. The Fed cuts rates to spur economic growth. We could see some additional downward pressure on rates in the short term but that will be predicated on tame inflation readings, so caution is key.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Comment Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which put downward pressure on rates. The MBS market was quiet most of the week and rallied Friday morning tied to weak payrolls data. The other data was mixed. ISM Index was 48.7 vs 49. Factory orders fell 1.3% vs the expected 1.4% decline. ADP employment &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2025\/09\/08\/mig-market-watch-september-8th-2025\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">MIG Market Watch, September 8th, 2025<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9222,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>MIG Market Watch, September 8th, 2025 - Mortgage Investors Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/migonline.com\/blog\/2025\/09\/08\/mig-market-watch-september-8th-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MIG Market Watch, September 8th, 2025 - Mortgage Investors Group\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market Comment Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which put downward pressure on rates. 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The MBS market was quiet most of the week and rallied Friday morning tied to weak payrolls data. The other data was mixed. ISM Index was 48.7 vs 49. Factory orders fell 1.3% vs the expected 1.4% decline. 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