MIG Market Watch, November 28th, 2022
Posted by : Admin
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which held rates flat despite a little volatility early in the shortened trading week. Rates shot higher Monday and Tuesday amid thin trading conditions and no data. We recovered some of the losses Wednesday morning and afternoon. There was no trading Thursday in honor of the holiday and the trading day ended early Friday afternoon. The data was mixed. Weekly jobless claims surprised to the upside with a reading of 240K vs 226K. Durable goods rose 1% vs 0.4%. New home sales were 632K vs 578K. Consumer sentiment was 56.8 vs 55.5. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with no changes in discount points.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| FHFA House Price Index | Tuesday, Nov. 29, 10:00 am, et |
Down 0.8% | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Nov. 29, 10:00 am, et |
100.0 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| ADP Employment | Wednesday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et |
200K | Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates. |
| Q3 GDP | Wednesday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et |
Up 2.7% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:30 am, et |
222K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.4%, Up 0.8% |
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.3% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
| ISM Index | Thursday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et |
49.8 | Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Employment | Friday, Dec. 2, 8:30 am, et |
3.7%, Payrolls +200K |
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
Fed “Beige Book”
The Fed “Beige Book” is a summary of economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve regional districts. The release takes place eight times a year approximately two weeks ahead of each of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The report is used at the FOMC meetings, which tends to be one of the most influential events in the market. This week the summary will be released Wednesday afternoon. Market participants are continually attempting to determine what FOMC interest rate policy will be ahead of the next meeting. Any deviation from expectations usually results in extreme short- term market volatility. The timing of the “Beige Book” provides analysts a valuable look at one of the many factors the FOMC considers in setting interest rate policy.
