MIG Market Watch, December 17th, 2018
Posted by : Admin
MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which kept rates in check. We started on a positive note Monday as stocks showed continued weakness. Stronger than expected producer inflation data Tuesday erased the good start, core PPI rose 0.3% versus an expected 0.1% increase. Tame consumer inflation readings Wednesday tempered some of the fears. Weekly jobless claims missed the mark with an increase of 205K versus an expected 226K reading. The 30Y Treasury bond auction showed solid foreign demand. Retail sales rose 0.2% as expected. Industrial production and capacity use data came in as expected and didn’t move things. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| NAHB Housing Index | Monday, Dec. 17, 10:00 am, et |
59.8 | Moderately Important. A measure of single family housing.Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Housing Starts | Tuesday, Dec. 18, 8:30 am, et |
1225K | Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Fed Meeting Adjourns | Wednesday, Dec. 19, 2:15 pm, et |
25 basis point hike | Important. Most expect the Fed to raise rates. Volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Dec. 20, 8:30 am, et |
205K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Leading Economic Indicators | Thursday, Dec. 20, 10:00 am, et |
Up 0.4% | Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | Thursday, Dec. 20, 10:00 am, et |
13.2 | Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Durable Goods Orders | Friday, Dec. 21, 8:30 am, et |
Up 1.2% | Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items.Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Q3 GDP | Friday, Dec. 21, 8:30 am, et |
Up 3.6% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Friday, Dec. 21, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.5%, Up 0.8% |
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Friday, Dec. 21, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.2% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
IINCOME & OUTLAYS
The personal income and outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of future consumer demand. The personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and salaries. The outlays component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services. Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into consumer economic standing and consumption.
