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MIG Market Watch, August 11th, 2025
Posted by : Moneek-2
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which left rates relatively flat. Rates improved Monday morning, worsened Tuesday, were flat mid-week, and worsened again Friday morning. U.S. debt prices declined, and yields rose due to auction results and economic concerns, while stocks moved modestly higher on rate cut hopes and political developments. Numerous U.S. tariffs garnered attention with increases on Canada and India and a 90-day reprieve for Mexico. The data was mixed. Factory orders were down 4.8% vs down 4.9%. The trade deficit was $60.2B vs $61.6B. Weekly jobless claims were 226K vs 221K. Productivity rose 2.4% vs 2%. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index | Tuesday, Aug. 12, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2%, Core up 0.3% | Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates. |
| Producer Price Index | Thursday, Aug. 14, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2%, Core up 0.2% | Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Aug. 14, 8:30 am, et | 225K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Retail Sales | Friday, Aug. 15, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.5% | Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Industrial Production | Friday, Aug. 15, 9:15 am, et | Down 0.2% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Capacity Utilization | Friday, Aug. 15, 9:15 am, et | 77.5% | Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Friday, Aug. 15, 10:00 am, et | 61.5 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
EIA
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the nation’s premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. EIA conducts a comprehensive data collection program that covers the full spectrum of energy sources, end uses, and energy flows. EIA also prepares informative energy analyses, monthly short-term forecasts of energy market trends, and long-term U.S. and international energy outlooks. EIA disseminates its data, analyses,and other products primarily through its website, EIA.gov.”
The most recent short term energy outlook from the EIA said, “we expect significant global oil inventories builds will put consistent downward pressure on oil prices over the forecast period, with the Brent price averaging $58/b in 2026.”
Lower energy prices could put downward pressure on mortgage interest rates as lower inflation factors into the Fed’s rate policy decisions in the months ahead.
