MIG Market Watch, October 27th, 2025

MIG Market Watch, October 27th, 2025

Posted by : Moneek-2

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which left rates relatively flat. Bonds continued to reflect optimism for additional monetary easing through 2025. However, institutional investors remained cautious amid the continued government shutdown. Mortgage rates were steady most of the week with a little selling pressure tied to surging stocks Friday. All the U.S. government data continued to be delayed except for the consumer inflation release. Consumer prices rose 0.3% vs 0.4% for the month of September. The core rose 0.2% vs 0.3%. CPI year over year rose 3% vs 3.1%. YOY Core also rose 3% vs 3.1%. Existing home sales were 4.06M vs 4.1M. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator		Release
Date & Time		Consensus
Estimate
Analysis
Durable Goods OrdersMonday, Oct. 27, 1:15 pm, etUp 0.3%Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
FHFA House Price IndexTuesday, Oct. 28, 10:00 am, etUp 0.1%Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer ConfidenceTuesday, Oct. 28, 10:00 am, et94.2Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade DataWednesday, Oct. 29, 8:30 am, et$90B deficitImportant. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Fed Meeting AdjournsWednesday, Oct. 29, 2:15 pm, et25 basis point cutVery Important. Most expect the Fed to cut rates. Volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Q3 GDPThursday, Oct. 30, 8:30 am, etUp 3%Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Personal Income and OutlaysFriday, Oct. 31, 8:30 am, etUp 0.4%, Up 0.4%Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core InflationFriday, Oct. 31, 8:30 am, etUp 0.2%Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
Q3 Employment Cost IndexFriday, Oct. 31, 8:30 am, etUp 0.9%Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

CPI

The tame consumer price index report last week paved the way for another Fed rate Wednesday. Market participants were concerned the Fed could pause while the U.S. government shutdown continued and data remained delayed. The CPI exception occurred because federal law requires the CPI to be published to support the Social Security Administration’s annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) calculation for benefits, which must be announced by November 1 and takes effect in January 2026. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled some staff to finalize and release the report despite the broader data blackout.

While a Fed rate cut does not automatically result in lower mortgage interest rates in the short-term. It does put downward pressure on rates over time. Tame inflation readings also bode well for additional rate cuts in the future.