![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put upward pressure on rates. Trading was muted the first portion of the week. The NAHB housing market index was near expectations and rates held steady Monday. Housing starts data was weaker than expected Tuesday and Existing home sales Wednesday were an expected 5.33M which resulted in no interest rate changes. Sharply lower than expected weekly jobless claims shocked the markets and the volatility resumed as rates rose 3/8 of a discount point that morning alone. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/2 of a discount point.
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| New Home Sales | Monday, April 25, 10:00 am, et | 525K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Durable Goods Orders | Tuesday, April 26, 8:30 am, et | Down 1.2% | Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, April 26, 10:00 am, et | 96.2 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Treasury Auctions Begin | Tuesday, April 26, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. 2Y Notes on Tuesday, 5Y Notes on Wednesday, and 7Y Notes on Thursday. |
| Fed Meeting Adjourns | Wednesday, April 27, 2:15 pm, et | No rate changes | Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, April 28, 8:30 am, et | 248K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Q1 GDP | Thursday, April 28, 8:30 am, et | Up 1.4% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Q1 Employment Cost Index | Friday, April 29, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.4% | Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Friday, April 29, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2%, Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Friday, April 29, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
Jobs
Keep a sharp eye on the various employment related data this week. Last week’s weekly jobless claims hit levels not seen in over 40 years. The data showed 247,000 new applications for unemployment. Analysts expected a number around 265,000. It is not uncommon for the weekly figures to miss estimates but the sharply lower figure was a very strong indicator that the U.S. economy continued to add jobs. The Fed is in a difficult spot with so much mixed data. Strong employment data supports the call for rate hikes sooner rather than later. However, growth figures disappointed as of late which supports further delays. Now is a great time to get a low interest rate mortgage ahead of potential volatility.
