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MIG Market Watch, March 23rd, 2020

MIG Market Watch, March 23rd, 2020


MIG Market Watch, March 23rd, 2020

MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. Rates improved Monday morning in response to the surprise Sunday additional rate cut and MBS purchase announcement. Unfortunately, that was short-lived as rates spiked significantly higher the remainder of the week. The coronavirus impact started appearing in the data. Retail sales fell 0.5% versus the expected 0.1% increase. The NAHB Housing index was 92. Analysts anticipated a reading of 94. The February housing starts figure surprised to the upside. Starts were 1599K vs 1475K. The US Administration invoked the Defense Production Act and HUD indicated there will be no foreclosures or evictions until the end of April. The Treasury secretary warned unemployment could hit 20%. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by a wide range. In some instances, rates were worse by over a full discount point.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
New Home Sales Tuesday, March 24,
10:00 am, et
750K Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Durable Goods Orders Wednesday, March 25,
8:30 am, et
Down 0.9% Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
FHFA House Price Index Wednesday, March 25,
10:00 am, et
Up 0.2% Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, March 26,
8:30 am, et
220K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Q4 GDP Third Estimate Thursday, March 26,
8:30 am, et
Up 2.1% Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
PCE Core Inflation Friday, March 27,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.1% Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
Personal Income and Outlays Friday, March 27,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.3%,
Up 0.1%
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, March 27,
10:00 am, et
95 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

MORTGAGE RATES VOLATILE
Mortgage interest rates continued to fluctuate wildly with major spikes higher the latter portion of last week despite the recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and $200B in Fed MBS purchases. The coronavirus outbreak continued to spread across the globe and many countries basically shut down all but essential elements of society.

The core challenge investors and the financial markets face is pricing anything in this environment. Risk models that worked during periods of stability do not necessarily return an accurate picture of risks during a global viral pandemic. For example, what is the value of a hotel chain if no customers are traveling? In the case of a stock the value would plummet as the risk increased. The same is true for mortgage-backed securities (the bonds the dictate mortgage interest rate pricing.) What is the value if the performance of the investment could be in question? Will an MBS perform in the future like it has historically? The point is that the MBS market is subject to all the current uncertainty that has struck every facet of life and business. This caused prices to fall and rates to rise in the short-term.

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Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at migonline.com Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
  • Not all programs are available in all states.
  • Some loan programs may not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Terms and conditions apply, which may include restrictions or limits per loan program.
  • Information is generally based on primary residence occupancy with no cash out when refinancing.
  • Unless otherwise stated, terms shown are estimates based in part on credit score of 700 or higher; owner occupancy, escrow account is established for taxes and insurance(s); debt-to-income ratio no higher than 43.0%; PMI applies to conventional loan programs over 80.0% LTV; VA,FHA & RD require insuring fees included in loan and/or payment; fixed rate, 30 year term.

An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020