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MIG Market Watch, May 4th, 2020

MIG Market Watch, May 4th, 2020


MIG Market Watch, May 4th, 2020

MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which kept rates relatively flat. Rates started the week higher Monday morning as the Fed announced additional reductions in their billion-dollar MBS tentative purchase schedule. The negative trend did not last long as positive movements Tuesday erased the earlier losses. Consumer confidence was 86.9 vs the expected 86.5. Q1 GDP fell 4.8% versus the expected 4.3% decline. Weekly jobless claims were 3.839M vs the expected 3.05M. Personal income fell 2% vs the expected 1.5% decrease. Spending fell 7.5%. The expected decline was 3.8%. Core PCE inflation fell 0.1% vs the expected 0.1% increase. Q1 employment cost index rose 0.8%. Analysts looked for a reading of 0.6%. Mortgage interest rates finished the week near unchanged.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Factory Orders Monday, May 4,
10:00 am, et
Down 9.5% Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Trade Data Tuesday, May 5,
8:30 am, et
$38B deficit Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
ADP Employment Wednesday, May 6,
8:30 am, et
Down 13M Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, May 7,
8:30 am, et
3.9M Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Preliminary Q1 Productivity Thursday, May 7,
8:30 am, et
Down 5.4% Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Credit Thursday, May 7,
3:00 pm, et
$15B Low importance. A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Employment Friday, May 8,
8:30 am, et
14%,
Payrolls -20M
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.

WEAK GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated, “Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, according to the “advance” estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter reflected negative contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services, led by health care, and goods, led by motor vehicles and parts. The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment, led by transportation equipment. The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in services, led by travel.

Current-dollar GDP decreased 3.5 percent, or $191.2 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.54 trillion. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 3.5 percent, or $186.6 billion.”

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Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at migonline.com Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
  • Not all programs are available in all states.
  • Some loan programs may not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Terms and conditions apply, which may include restrictions or limits per loan program.
  • Information is generally based on primary residence occupancy with no cash out when refinancing.
  • Unless otherwise stated, terms shown are estimates based in part on credit score of 700 or higher; owner occupancy, escrow account is established for taxes and insurance(s); debt-to-income ratio no higher than 43.0%; PMI applies to conventional loan programs over 80.0% LTV; VA,FHA & RD require insuring fees included in loan and/or payment; fixed rate, 30 year term.

An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020