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MIG Market Watch, April 19th, 2021

MIG Market Watch, April 19th, 2021


MIG Market Watch, April 19th, 2021
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which put downward pressure on rates. Rates were flat Monday morning but improved the mornings of Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The massive Fed multi-billion-dollar daily MBS purchases continued which drove the downward movements. The data was mixed. Consumer prices rose 0.6% as expected. The core, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.3% as expected. Retail sales rose 9.8% vs 6%. Jobless claims were 576K vs the expected 700K. The Philadelphia Fed business conditions index was 66.6 vs 65. Production rose 1.4% vs 3.2%. Capacity use was 74.4% vs 75.7%. NAHB housing was 83.0 vs 84. Consumer sentiment was 86.5 vs the expected 89. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 5/8 to 3/4 of a discount point.


Looking Ahead
Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
20-year Treasury Bond Auction Wednesday, April 21,
1:15 pm, et
None Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, April 22,
8:30 am, et
620K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Existing Home Sales Thursday, April 22,
10:00 am, et
6.21M Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators Thursday, April 22,
10:00 am, et
Up 0.6% Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales Friday, April 23,
10:00 am, et
880K Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Leading Economic Indicators

The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is a weighted average of eleven economic variables that “lead” the business cycle. It is constructed for forecasting future aggregate economic activity. The eleven variables that make up the LEI measure workers’ hours, initial unemployment claims, new factory orders, vendor performance, contracts and orders for plant and equipment, new housing permits, changes in unfilled orders, prices of raw materials, stock prices, money supply and consumer expectations.

Each of the variables that comprise the index tends to predict (or lead) economic activity. For example, new orders for manufactured goods, new orders for plant and equipment, and new building permits are all direct measures of the amount of future production being planned for the economy.

Analysts monitor the LEI to predict future economic growth. When the LEI report is up, mortgage market participants expect credit demand to increase and inflationary pressures to build. Thus, when the LEI report is rising, interest rates tend to rise as well. The LEI report is a valuable forecasting device that often correctly predicts economic turning points. The percentage change in the LEI is reported monthly and is an indication of the activity that will occur within the next three to six months. The LEI tends to turn down before peaks in the business cycle. Continuous declines are generally accepted as evidence that a recession continues.

Nine of the eleven components that make up this index are known before the release of the report, so the index is easier for economists to predict than other data releases. Thus, although this is important predictive data for market participants, major surprises are not common with the release of this data.

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Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at migonline.com Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
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An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020