![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near neutral which kept rates near unchanged after considerable volatility. Rates were negative throughout the beginning of the week as inflation fears dominated trading. Solid data Wednesday did not help. Retail sales rose 3.8% vs 2.3%. Industrial production rose 1.4% vs 0.4%. Capacity use was 77.6% vs 76.4%. We recovered a lot of the losses in response to weaker data Thursday morning. Weekly jobless claims were 248K vs 218K. Housing starts were 1638K vs 1700K. The Philadelphia Fed report was 16 vs 18. Leading economic indicators fell 0.3% vs the expected 0.2% increase. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| FHFA House Price Index | Tuesday, Feb. 22, 10:00 am, et |
Up 1.4% | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Feb. 22, 10:00 am, et |
110 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Q4 GDP | Thursday, Feb. 24, 8:30 am, et |
Up 7.1% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Feb. 24, 8:30 am, et |
245K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| New Home Sales | Thursday, Feb. 24, 10:00 am, et |
807K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Friday, Feb. 25, 8:30 am, et |
Down 0.3%, Up 0.5% |
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Friday, Feb. 25, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.5% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
| Durable Goods Orders | Friday, Feb. 25, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.5% | Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Friday, Feb. 25, 10:00 am, et |
68.7 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Fed Testimony
The Fed Chair delivers the Federal Reserve’s semiannual report on monetary policy, familiarly called the Humphrey-Hawkins report, to both the House and Senate Banking Committees in February and July. The report is one of the most important speeches given by the Fed Chair and was originally mandated by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act. The remarks made to each committee tend to be identical in nature and address basic economic principles. The areas addressed tend to be the overall state of the US economy, recent developments, economic fundamentals, foreign developments, economic outlook, ranges for growth, and concluding remarks. A cautious approach to rate decisions is prudent heading into the event this week.
