![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week a little better to help rates remain steady despite considerable volatility. We started the week on a positive note amid tame inflation readings. The consumer price index was unchanged vs the expected 0.3% increase. The core rose 0.3% vs 0.6%. The YOY change was 8.5% vs 8.7%. decrease. Producer prices rose 0.2% vs 0.3%. The core rose 0.2% vs 0.4%. The Fed continued their MBS reinvestment purchases. Productivity fell 4.6% vs an expected 4.8% decrease. Weekly jobless claims were 262K vs 265K. Consumer sentiment was 55.1 vs 53. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| NAHB Housing Index | Monday, Aug. 15, 10:00 am, et |
55 | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family housing. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Housing Starts | Tuesday, Aug. 16, 8:30 am, et |
1.55M | Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Industrial Production | Tuesday, Aug. 16, 9:15 am, et |
Up 0.2% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates. |
| Capacity Utilization | Tuesday, Aug. 16, 9:15 am, et |
80.1% | Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates. |
| Retail Sales | Wednesday, Aug. 17, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Fed Minutes | Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2:00 pm, et |
None | Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Aug. 18, 8:30 am, et |
260K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | Thursday, Aug. 18, 10:00 am, et |
-5.4 | Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Existing Home Sales | Thursday, Aug. 18, 10:00 am, et |
4.85M | Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates. |
NAHB
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) releases the Housing Market Index each month which provides an indication of single-family housing market conditions. The results are derived from a survey of NAHB members in which members are asked to rate current market conditions, future market conditions, and prospective buyer traffic. The data is compiled and then a final number between 0 and 100 is released. A reading over 50 is generally considered positive. The data often correlates with the housing starts data. The release this week may provide an early indicator to the housing starts figure Tuesday.
