MIG Market Watch, February 27th, 2023

MIG Market Watch, February 27th, 2023

MIG Market Watch, February 27th, 2023
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. Trading went back and forth but ended on a sour note in response to higher-than-expected inflation readings and some surprises from Fed officials. The Fed minutes indicated, “A few participants stated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 50 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported raising the target by that amount.” Core PCE rose 0.6% vs 0.4%. The rest of the data was mixed but generally not rate friendly. Weekly jobless claims were 192K vs 200K. New home sales rose 670K vs 620K. Consumer sentiment was 67.0 to 66.6. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 3/8 of a discount point.

Looking Ahead
Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Durable Goods Orders Monday, Feb. 27,
8:30 am, et
Up 5.5% Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Trade Data Tuesday, Feb. 28,
8:30 am, et
$90.3B deficit Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
FHFA House Price Index Tuesday, Feb. 28,
10:00 am, et
Down 0.1% Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence Tuesday, Feb. 28,
10:00 am, et
1071.1 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ISM Index Wednesday, March 1,
10:00 am, et
51.4 Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction Spending Thursday, March 2,
10:00 am, et
Down 0.4% Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Revised Q4 Productivity Thursday, March 2,
8:30 am, et
Up 1.4% Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, March 2,
8:30 am, et
192K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.


The Federal Reserve Bank of New York defines r-star as “the real short-term interest rate expected to prevail when an economy is at full strength and inflation is stable.” The R references inflation and the star signifies the “long-term” in economic equations. Basically, it is the real neutral rate of interest that keeps the economy balanced in the years ahead. There are several models that try to determine R-star and they vary. The NY Fed stopped posting their R-star data November 2020 due to “extraordinary volatility in GDP related to the COVID-19 pandemic.” At that time their r-star rate was 0.03% for the United States. Since then, the Richmond Fed has released a model that some reference. Their recent data showed R-star levels around 1.3%. That would make the Fed’s general interest rate target that most people reference 3.3%. The Fed is expected to publish updated projections in March, but some believe they will hold back any R-star estimates in order to keep markets calm.

Now is a good time to take advantage of rates at these levels to avoid exposure to volatility in the weeks ahead.


Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
  • Not all programs are available in all states.
  • Some loan programs may not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Terms and conditions apply, which may include restrictions or limits per loan program.
  • Information is generally based on primary residence occupancy with no cash out when refinancing.
  • Unless otherwise stated, terms shown are estimates based in part on credit score of 700 or higher; owner occupancy, escrow account is established for taxes and insurance(s); debt-to-income ratio no higher than 43.0%; PMI applies to conventional loan programs over 80.0% LTV; VA,FHA & RD require insuring fees included in loan and/or payment; fixed rate, 30 year term.

An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020