![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put upward pressure on rates. Rates went back and forth to start the week but pushed significantly higher following the Fed minutes Wednesday afternoon and stronger than expected ADP data Thursday morning. ADP employment was 497K vs 228K. The rest of the data was mixed. Weekly jobless claims were a tame 248K vs the expected 250K. Construction spending rose 0.9% vs 0.4%. ISM index was 46.0 vs 47.1. Factory orders rose 0.3% vs 0.6%. Unemployment was 3.6% as expected. Payrolls rose 209K vs 220K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 7/8 of a discount point.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| Consumer Credit | Monday, July 10, 3:00 pm, et |
$20B | Low importance. A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates. |
| Consumer Price Index | Wednesday, July 12, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.3%, Core up 0.3% |
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates. |
| Fed “Beige Book” | Wednesday, July 12, 2:00 pm, et |
None | Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, July 13, 8:30 am, et |
245K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Producer Price Index | Thursday, July 13, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.2%, Core up 0.2% |
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Friday, July 14, 10:00 am, et |
64.8 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Rate Expectations Change
The outlook for mortgage interest rates throughout the end of the year took a swing over the past few weeks as the Fed repeatedly indicated they may not be done with rate hikes. A few months ago the consensus was that the Fed was done with raising rates, would pause the hikes this summer, and possibly start cutting rates early next year. The last Fed meeting in June resulted in a pause, but their remarks indicated elevated inflation levels remained a big concern.
The Fed minutes last week doubled down on this sentiment and put additional upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The release stated “Some participants indicated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a proposal. The participants favoring a 25 basis point increase noted that the labor market remained very tight, momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated, and there were few clear signs that inflation was on a path to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over time.” They continued, “In discussing the policy outlook, all participants continued to anticipate that, with inflation still well above the Committee’s 2 percent goal and the labor market remaining very tight, maintaining a restrictive stance for monetary policy would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives. Almost all participants noted that in their economic projections that they judged that additional increases in the target federal funds rate during 2023 would be appropriate.”
Be cautious with float/lock decision in the weeks ahead as market uncertainty continues.
