![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly lower which put upward pressure on rates. We started positively Monday and Tuesday in response to generally tame data. Leading economic indicators fell 0.8% vs 0.7%. Lower than expected weekly jobless claims reversed that trend and left us near neutral heading into Thanksgiving. Weekly jobless claims were 209K vs the expected 230K. Consumer sentiment was 61.3 vs 61.1. Durable goods orders fell 5.4% vs the expected 3.3% decline. Most of the trading was within a narrow range surrounding the holiday. There was a downward move in prices when trading resumed Friday morning. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| New Home Sales | Monday, Nov. 27, 10:00 am, et |
730K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| FHFA House Price Index | Tuesday, Nov. 28, 10:00 am, et |
Up 0.6% | Up 0.6% Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Q3 GDP | Wednesday, Nov. 29, 8:30 am, et |
Up 2.1% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Fed “Beige Book” | Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2:00 pm, et |
None | Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Thursday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.6%, Up 0.3% |
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Thursday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.3% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et |
205K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| ISM Index | Friday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et |
46.7 | Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Construction Spending | Friday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et |
Up 0.4% | Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates. |
Fed “Beige Book”
The Fed “Beige Book” is a summary of economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve regional districts. The release takes place eight times a year approximately two weeks ahead of each of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The report is used at the FOMC meetings, which tends to be one of the most influential events in the market. This week the summary will be released Wednesday afternoon. Market participants are continually attempting to determine what FOMC interest rate policy will be ahead of the next meeting. Any deviation from expectations usually results in extreme short- term market volatility. The timing of the “Beige Book” provides analysts a valuable look at one of the many factors the FOMC considers in setting interest rate policy.
