![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. A solid stock market rebound reversed the flight to safety buying seen the prior week. Stocks started the week lower with the DOW down over 900 points Monday. The stock weakness was short-lived, and we saw a few 500+ point swings throughout the week. There were very few economic releases, and the data was mixed. ISM Index was 51.4 vs 51. The trade deficit was $73.1B vs $72.5B. Consumer credit rose $8.9B vs 10B. Weekly jobless claims were 233K vs 240K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index | Tuesday, Aug. 13, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.1%, Core up 0.2% | Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Price Index | Wednesday, Aug. 14, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2%, Core up 0.2% | Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates. |
| Retail Sales | Thursday, Aug. 15, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of consumer demand. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | Thursday, Aug. 15, 8:30 am, et | -10.4 | Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Industrial Production | Thursday, Aug. 15, 9:15 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Capacity Utilization | Thursday, Aug. 15, 9:15 am, et | 78.6% | Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates. |
| NAHB Housing Index | Thursday, Aug. 15, 10:00 am, et | 43 | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family housing. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Housing Starts | Friday, Aug. 16, 8:30 am, et | 1.35M | Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Friday, Aug. 16, 10:00 am, et | 66.7 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Gas Prices Fall
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported August 5, 2024, that the price of regular gasoline averaged $3.448 per gallon across the country. The Gulf Coast had the lowest average prices while the West Coast had the highest. These prices reflect an approximate four cent decrease from the prior week. A positive of the recently falling prices for consumers is an increase in discretionary spending. This is good news during the typically busy traveling time associated with summer. Fuel savings usually give purchasers a boost in spending power and the vast majority of consumers spend that money. More money in consumer accounts could result in an increase in spending the latter portion of this year. The recent gas price decreases aren’t dramatic in the short term but are consumer friendly considering prices are 38 cents lower than this time last year.
