![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Trading was back and forth amid mostly tame data. Producer prices rose 0.1% vs 0.2%. The core was unchanged vs an expected 0.2% increase. Consumer prices rose 0.2% as expected. The core also rose 0.2% as expected. Retail sales rose 1% vs 0.3%. Weekly jobless claims were 227K vs 235K. The Philadelphia Fed index fell 7.0 vs the expected positive 7.0. Industrial production fell 0.6% vs down 0.3%. Capacity use was 77.8% vs 78.5%. NAHB housing was 39 vs 43. Housing starts were 1.238M vs 1.33M. Sentiment was 67.8 vs 66.9. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading Economic Indicators | Monday, Aug. 19, 10:00 am, et | Down 0.3% | Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| 20Y Treasury Bond Auction | Wednesday, Aug. 21, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Fed Minutes | Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2:00 pm, et | None | Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Aug. 22, 8:30 am, et | 225K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Existing Home Sales | Thursday, Aug. 22, 10:00 am, et | 3.89M | Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| 30-year Treasury TIPS Auction | Thursday, Aug. 22, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. TIPS will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| New Home Sales | Friday, Aug. 23, 10:00 am, et | 630K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
Jackson Hole Symposium
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the Fed “hosts dozens of central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week.” The events begin Wednesday and carry on through Friday. The symposium “is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern.” Historically, “more than 150 authors have presented papers on topics such as inflation, labor markets and international trade.”
“Papers provided to the Bank in advance and presented at the annual economic policy symposium will be posted online at the time theyare presented at the event. Other papers, such as discussant comments, may not be provided until after the event but are posted as they become available. Additionally, transcripts of the proceedings are posted on the website as they become available, a process that generally takes a few months. Finally, the papers and transcripts are compiled into proceedings books which are both posted on the website and published in a volume that is available online or in print, free of charge.”
Fed Chair Powell is expected to speak Friday and market volatility could surround the event.
