![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Rates worsened the beginning of the week but turned course mid-week amid lackluster economic data and struggling stocks. The Fed minutes indicated optimism of moving towards their 2% inflation goal with a noted cautious approach. NAHB Housing was 42 vs 47. Housing starts were 1.336M vs 1.4M. Weekly jobless claims were 219K vs 215K. Philadelphia Fed was 18.1 vs 20. LEI fell 0.3% vs the expected 0.1% decline. Existing home sales were 4.08M vs 4.12M. Consumer sentiment was 64.7 vs 67.8. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury Auctions Begin | Monday, Feb. 24, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. 2Y Notes on Monday, 5Y Notes on Tuesday, and 7Y Notes on Wednesday. |
| FHFA House Price Index | Tuesday, Feb. 25, 10:00 am, et | Up 0.4% | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Feb. 25, 10:00 am, et | 102.1 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| New Home Sales | Wednesday, Feb. 26, 10:00 am, et | 690K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Q2 GDP | Thursday, Feb. 27, 8:30 am, et | Up 2.3% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Durable Goods Orders | Thursday, Feb. 27, 1:15 pm, et | Up 1.3% | Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Friday, Feb. 28, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.3%, Up 0.2% | Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Friday, Feb. 28, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
GDP
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report each quarter. GDP is one the most important reports during any given quarter. The initial report is often based on incomplete data. Therefore, additional revisions are released over the following two months.
GDP is a measure of US economic output and spending. The report is significant in that it provides investors, analysts, traders, and economists with a comprehensive report of the direction of the economy. In addition, it also influences the decisions of Federal Reserve policy makers, Congressional budget employees, and corporate financial planners. GDP is the total of goods and services produced by the United States.
The GDP release can swing the financial markets in the short term. Be cautious heading into the GDP release in the event the data comes in against us.
