![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. Stocks saw continued whipsaw trading and tariffs dominated headlines. Tame consumer and producer inflation readings tempered some of the MBS selling pressure however we still ended the week worse overall. Consumer prices rose 0.2% vs 0.3%. The core rose 0.2% vs 0.3%. YOY Core CPI was up 3.1% vs 3.3%. Producer prices were unchanged vs up 0.3%. The core was down 0.1% vs up 0.3%. The rest of the data was mixed. Weekly jobless claims were 220K vs 225K. Consumer sentiment was 57.9 vs 63.1. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 3/8 to 1/2 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales | Monday, March 17, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.7% | Important. A measure of consumer demand. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| NAHB Housing Index | Monday, March 17, 10:00 am, et | 43 | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family housing. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Housing Starts | Tuesday, March 18, 8:30 am, et | 1.375M | Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Industrial Production | Tuesday, March 18, 9:15 am, et | Up 0.2% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Capacity Utilization | Tuesday, March 18, 9:15 am, et | 77.8% | Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Fed Meeting Adjourns | Wednesday, March 19, 2:15 pm, et | No rate changes | Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting. |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | Thursday, March 20, 10:00 am, et | 12.1 | Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Leading Economic Indicators | Thursday, March 20, 10:00 am, et | Down 0.2% | Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates. |
Fed
The Federal Reserve meets this week, and the stakes are very high considering all the recent volatility. With the U.S. economy navigating a complex landscape of persistent inflation, labor market shifts, and global uncertainties, this meeting could set the tone for the remainder of the year. Economists and investors are particularly keen to see whether the Fed will maintain its current stance or signal a pivot and ease rates to stimulate growth. Recent data showing moderating consumer prices alongside robust job growth has fueled speculation, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently emphasized a data-driven approach, leaving room for surprises. All eyes are on the Fed this week as it balances its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
In recent months, inflationary pressures have eased from their pandemic-era peaks, but core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the labor market, though strong, has shown signs of cooling, with wage growth slowing and some sectors reporting layoffs. Current odds favor a neutral stance from the Fed however volatility is possible in response to Fed Chair Powell’s post meeting press conference.
