![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly lower which put additional upward pressure on rates. Equities were volatile as inflation fears and a potential government shutdown impacted trading. MBS prices traded within a relatively narrow range but failed to rally despite tame inflation data. The other data showed a solid economy. New home sales were 800K vs 650K. GDP was up 3.8% vs up 3.3%. Durable goods rose 2.9% vs down 0.5%. Weekly jobless claims were 218K vs 235K. Personal Income rose 0.4% vs 0.3%. Spending was up 0.6% vs 0.5%. Consumer sentiment was 55.1 vs 55.4. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/8 to 1/4 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| FHFA House Price Index | Tuesday, Sept. 30, 10:00 am, et | Up 0.1% | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Sept. 30, 10:00 am, et | 96 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| ADP Employment | Wednesday, Oct. 1, 8:30 am, et | 30K | Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates. |
| Construction Spending | Wednesday, Oct. 1, 10:00 am, et | Down 0.1% | Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| ISM Index | Wednesday, Oct. 1, 10:00 am, et | 49.2 | Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Oct. 2, 8:30am, et | 220K | Important. An indication of the employment situation. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Factory Orders | Thursday, Oct. 2, 10:00 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Employment | Friday, Oct. 3, 8:30 am, et | 4.3%, Payrolls +39K | Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
Tame Inflation
The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released the core PCE price index last Friday. The Core PCE Price Index rose 0.2% as expected for the month of August. The year over year Core Price index rose 2.9%, also as expected. This was much needed considering Fed Chair Powell’s continued inflation warnings.
Powell most recently addressed the economy in his September 23, 2025, speech at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon in Warwick, Rhode Island. His comments reflected a balanced but cautious tone amid the dual pressures of elevated inflation and a softening labor market. Powell highlighted upside inflation risks in the near term, due to tariffs, but stressed that longer-term expectations remain anchored at 2%. He cautioned against aggressive rate cuts, as they could exacerbate price pressures if tariffs’ effects prove stickier.
A cautious approach to float/lock decisions is prudent amid continued economic uncertainty. Continued tame inflation readings could pave the way for additional Fed rate cuts before the end of the year.
