![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged to slightly lower which kept rates relatively flat. Rates started the week on a positive note following the Monday holiday. Rates fell Tuesday and Wednesday amid mixed data. The NAHB housing market index was stronger than expected. The Fed minutes from the last meeting provided no real surprises. Weekly jobless claims were lower than expected. Claims came in at 216K versus the expected 225K. The Philadelphia Fed business conditions index showed weakness in the Northeast. Durable goods orders rose a solid 1.2%. Existing home sales were a little lower than expected at 4.99M. Leading economic indicators fell 0.1% versus an expected 0.1% increase. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged to worse by 1/8.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| FHFA House Price Index | Tuesday, Feb. 26, 10:00 am, et |
Up 0.5% | Moderately Important. A measure of single family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Feb. 26, 10:00 am, et |
120 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| New Home Sales | Tuesday, Feb. 26, 10:00 am, et |
660K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Durable Goods Orders | Wednesday, Feb. 27, 8:30 am, et |
Up 1.2% | Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Factory Orders | Wednesday, Feb. 27, 8:30 am, et |
Down 0.3% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Q4 GDP | Thursday, Feb. 28, 8:30 am, et |
Up 3.5% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Feb. 28, 8:30 am, et |
218K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Friday, March 1, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.3%, Up 0.3% |
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Friday, March 1, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
| ISM Index | Friday, March 1, 10:00 am, et |
56.9 | Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
MBS
Mortgage-backed securities directly dictate daily mortgage interest rate changes. Most of these financial instruments are backed by pools of mortgages issued by agencies such as Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, and Fannie Mae. These securities are bought and sold just like other bonds and stocks. However, an MBS has inherent credit, default, and prepayment risk. When the demand is solid prices rise and interest rates fall. The inverse leads to rising mortgage interest rates. It is important to know that rates change throughout each trading day.
