Translate:

EN

MIG Market Watch, December 16th, 2019

MIG Market Watch, December 16th, 2019


MIG Market Watch, December 16th, 2019

MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged to slightly positive which kept rates in check. We started the week on a positive note Monday morning amid no data as rates improved slightly. The positive movement was short-lived as the gains were erased Tuesday morning. Q3 Productivity fell 0.2% versus the expected 0.1% decrease. Rates were flat Wednesday morning in response to tame inflation data. Consumer prices rose 0.3% and the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2%. Traders expected both components of CPI to rise 0.2%. Weekly jobless claims were 252K versus the expected 212K. Producer prices were unchanged versus the expected 0.2% increase. Core PPI fell 0.2%. Analysts expected a 0.2% increase. Retail sales rose 0.2% versus the expected 0.5%. Mortgage interest rates finished the week unchanged to better by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
NAHB Housing Index Monday, Dec. 16,
10:00 am, et
70 Moderately Important.  A measure of single-family housing.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Housing Starts Tuesday, Dec. 17,
8:30 am, et
1.34M Important.  A measure of housing sector strength.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Industrial Production Tuesday, Dec. 17,
9:15 am, et
Up 0.8% Important.  A measure of manufacturing sector strength.  A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization Tuesday, Dec. 17,
9:15 am, et
77.4% Important.  A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary.  Weaker figure may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, Dec. 19,
8:30 am, et
230K Important.  An indication of employment.   Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey Thursday, Dec. 19,
8:30 am, et
8.8 Moderately important.  A survey of business conditions in the Northeast.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales Thursday, Dec. 19,
10:00 am, et
5.45M Low importance.  An indication of mortgage credit demand.  Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Personal Income and Outlays Friday, Dec. 20,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.4%,
Up 1.8%
Important.  A measure of consumers’ ability to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q3 GDP
Third Estimate
Friday, Dec. 20,
8:30 am, et
Up 2.1% Very important.  The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
PCE Core Inflation Friday, Dec. 20,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.1% Important.  A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption.  Weaker figure may help rates improve.

INCOME & OUTLAYS
The personal income and outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of future consumer demand. The personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and salaries. The outlays component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services. Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into consumer economic standing and consumption.

Share

Leave a comment