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MIG Market Watch, October 5th, 2020

MIG Market Watch, October 5th, 2020


MIG Market Watch, October 5th, 2020

MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Rates were quiet the first portion of the week despite solid data. Consumer confidence was 101.8 vs the expected 88.5. The Fed dominated trading again with billions of dollars of MBSs daily. Tame data Wednesday kept rates in check that morning. ADP employment was 749K vs 700K. Q2 GDP fell 31.4% vs the expected 31.7% decrease. Personal income fell 2.7% vs the expected 2% decline. Spending rose 1% vs 0.6%. Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% as expected. Weekly jobless were 837K vs 850K. Unemployment was 7.9% vs the expected 8.2%. However, non-farm payrolls rose 661K vs the expected 800K. Factory orders rose 0.7% vs 1.2%. Sentiment was 80.4 vs 79. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
Trade Data Tuesday, Oct. 6,
8:30 am, et
$66.3B deficit Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
3-year Treasury Note Auction Tuesday, Oct. 6,
1:15 pm, et
None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
10-year Treasury Note Auction Wednesday, Oct. 7,
1:15 pm, et
None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Minutes Wednesday, Oct. 7,
2:00 pm, et
None Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, Oct. 8,
8:30 am, et
805K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction Thursday, Oct. 8,
1:15 pm, et
None Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

TRADE DATA
In the distant past the US economy tended to be viewed as relatively unaffected by economic activity in other countries. However, increased trades with other countries and an increased reliance on foreign purchases of US debt have generated a market awareness of trade-related issues. The exchange rate of the dollar and foreign trade flows are interrelated. One must buy dollars to purchase US exports and sell dollars to buy imports. Likewise, foreign investment in US debt requires the purchase of US dollars and is thus affected by exchange rates.

Each month the Commerce Department gathers an enormous amount of detailed data on exports and imports. The data is broken between goods and services trade. The overall trade balance is the dollar difference between US exports and imports on a seasonally adjusted basis. The report also highlights trade flows between the US and various partners. Since the mid-1970’s, US imports of consumer and capital goods have exceeded exports, so a merchandise trade deficit has existed. The US has always maintained a service trade surplus, and because this surplus is not enough to offset the merchandise trade deficit, a net export deficit has resulted.

Due to the overwhelming amount of data considered, trade is difficult to forecast, and can present surprises. For a variety of reasons, the financial markets will often be unaffected by surprises in trade data. However, the data still can cause mortgage interest rate volatility.

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Mortgage Investors Group, based in Tennessee, offers residential financing in a number of states in the southeast, See MIG Service Areas. Terms and conditions to apply to home financing. We want to share with you the loan terms vary based on several characteristics and your financial profile. These include but are not limited to loan program, loan purpose, occupancy, credit history, credit score, assets, and other criteria per loan type. The repayment terms and interest rate may vary from time to time. The terms represented here are based on certain assumptions outlined below and/or noted on the loan outline page. Additional details concerning privacy, program disclosures, licensing specifics may be found at migonline.com Legal Information.

MIG Loan Officers will help gather the information needed for an individual assessment to provide home financing which matches the loan characteristics with your home financing needs based on your financial profile, when you are ready to begin a full loan application. For estimates and general information before that step, the basis for which the mortgage financing information are as follows:

  • Rates are subject to change at any time.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Rate locks are available at current terms for 30 to 180 days based on program type, credit profile, property location, etc. which will affect the available rate and term.
  • Payments will vary based on program selection, current rates, property location, etc.
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An MIG Loan Officer is available to help with your financial details to determine which characteristics apply to your situation for a personalized look into which loan program best fits your home financing needs. Please use the Find a Loan Officer link or reach out to Mortgage Investors Group at 800-489-8910. Equal Housing Lender 1.2020