MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put significant upward pressure on rates. Rates were worse Tuesday as inflation fears flared and that continued through most of the week. Many traders bet on rebounding growth which ultimately could be accompanied by inflation. Inflation, real or perceived, erodes the value of fixed income investments such as mortgage-backed securities. This cause prices to fall and rates to rise. The Fed minutes indicated, “Some participants further observed that 12-month PCE inflation was likely to move somewhat above 2 percent for a brief period in the spring as the unusually low monthly observations from last spring roll out of the 12-month calculation.” Producer prices rose 1.3% vs the expected 0.5% increase. The core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 1.2% vs the expected 0.2% increase. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 7/8 to one full discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| Leading Economic Indicators | Monday, Feb. 22, 10:00 am, et | Up 0.3% | Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Feb. 23, 10:00 am, et | 89.6 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| New Home Sales | Wednesday, Feb. 24, 10:00 am, et | 855K | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Feb. 25, 8:30 am, et | 820K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Durable Goods Orders | Thursday, Feb. 25, 8:30 am, et | Up 1.2% | Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Q4 GDP | Thursday, Feb. 25, 8:30 am, et | Up 3.7% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Friday, Feb. 26, 8:30 am, et | Up 4.3%, Up 0.5% | Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Friday, Feb. 26, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Friday, Feb. 26, 10:00 am, et | 79.2 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
FED UNCERTAINTY
The Fed Monetary Policy Report released February 19, 2021 described a serious challenge the Fed faces. The Fed stated, “As with real activity and inflation, the outlook for the future path of the federal funds rate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty arises primarily because each participant’s assessment of the appropriate stance of monetary policy depends importantly on the evolution of real activity and inflation over time. If economic conditions evolve in an unexpected manner, then assessments of the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate would change from that point forward.”
With so much uncertainty, now is a great time to take advantage of the historically low mortgage interest rates we currently have.
