Mortgage Watch In Review

Mortgage Watch In Review

Posted by : Moneek-2

May 26, 2026

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put a little upward pressure on rates. Rates worsened considerably mid-week only to recover a lot of the losses Thursday and Friday. The Middle East conflict and inflation fears continued to factor heavily into market sentiment. The data was mixed. NAHB housing was 37 vs 35. Weekly ADP employment rose 42.25K vs 33K. Housing starts were 1.465M vs 1.41M. Philadelphia Fed fell 0.4 vs the expected 18 reading. Sentiment was 44.8 vs 48.2. Leading economic indicators rose 0.1% vs a 0.2% decline. Weekly jobless claims were 209K vs 210K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.

Looking Ahead

Economic
Indicator		Release
Date & Time		Consensus
Estimate
Analysis
FHFA House Price IndexTuesday, May 26, 10:00 am, etUp 0.1%Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer ConfidenceTuesday, May 26, 10:00 am, et92Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Weekly ADP EmploymentWednesday, May 27, 8:30 am, et40KImportant. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Durable Goods OrdersThursday, May 28, 8:30 am, etUp 1.8%Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Q1 GDPThursday, May 28, 8:30 am, etUp 2.0%Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Personal Income and OutlaysThursday, May 28, 8:30 am, etUp 0.6%, Up 0.7%Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core InflationThursday, May 28, 8:30 am, etUp 0.4%Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence Index on the last Tuesday of every month. The report details the levels of confidence individual households have in the performance of the economy. The data is derived from a survey of 5,000 households nationwide. The survey polls consumer opinions on current business conditions, their jobs, their incomes, and their future spending plans. The Conference Board is a non-profit group that has produced the data since 1967.

The consumer confidence index is significant in that it provides a precursor into the willingness of consumers to spend in the months ahead. Consumers are vital to the US economy as consumer spending is a large portion of the gross domestic product. Manufacturers attempt to gauge consumer spending and adjust production accordingly. The challenge that many analysts note is the fact that a consumer’s willingness to spend does not always convert to an actual expenditure.

Be cautious heading into economic releases in the days ahead. Signs of strength will likely push rates higher. However, significant weakness could alleviate rate pressures