Market Watch

Market Watch

Posted by : Moneek-2

May 7, 2026

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. Rates improved Monday, worsened Tuesday and Wednesday, and traded sideways Thursday and Friday. The Middle East conflict remained the focus of global markets, but no new developments emerged. The Fed left rates unchanged and indicated “economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.” FHFA was unchanged vs up 0.2%. Consumer Confidence was 92.8 vs 89. Durable goods rose 0.8% vs 0.4%. Housing starts were 1.372M vs 1.390M. GDP rose 2% vs 2.3%. Core PCE prices rose 0.3% as expected. Income rose 0.6% vs 0.3%. Spending rose 0.9% as expected. ISM index was 52.7 vs 53. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.

Looking Ahead

Economic
Indicator		Release
Date & Time		Consensus
Estimate
Analysis
Factory OrdersMonday, May 4, 10:00 am, etUp 0.4%Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home SalesTuesday, May 5, 10:00 am, et668KImportant. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
ADP EmploymentWednesday, May 6, 8:30 am, et79KImportant. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Weekly Jobless ClaimsThursday, May 7, 8:30 am, et190KImportant. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Preliminary Q1 ProductivityThursday, May 7, 8:30 am, etUp 1.9%Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction SpendingThursday, May 7, 10:00 am, etUp 0.4%Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
EmploymentFriday, May 8, 8:30 am, et4.3%, Payrolls +73KVery important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates

Fed Speeches

There are numerous Federal Reserve speeches this week which could result in mortgage interest rate volatility. Fed official Williams speaks Monday at 11:50am et. Fed official Bowman follows with a speech Tuesday at 9am et. Fed official Barr follows Bowman with a speech at 11am that same morning. Goolsbee and Hammock both speak midday Wednesday. Hammock and Williams speak again on Thursday while four members speak Friday morning into the afternoon.

Fed officials impact trading all the time but generally attempt to present a united front. They work tirelessly to try to provide calm to the markets with as much guidance as possible in accordance with their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. However, each member has a unique perspective on the U.S. economy and advocate for their positions both within the committee and in public.

Global economic instability and energy prices pressures have the Fed concerned as they noted last week. A cautious approach to float/lock decisions is prudent in this environment of heightened uncertainty.