![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put upward pressure on rates. Rates worsened throughout most of the week as inflation fears continued. We started negative in carryover from the strong employment report the prior week. Fed Chair Powell spoke Tuesday which calmed things temporarily. However, Fed official Waller indicated that we may need rates “higher for longer.” Selling pressure continued Wednesday and Friday as a result. There wasn’t much data. Weekly jobless claims were 196K vs 194K. The trade deficit was $67.4B vs $68.5B. Consumer sentiment was 66.4 vs 65.0. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 5/8 of a discount point.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator |
Release Date & Time |
Consensus Estimate |
Analysis |
| Consumer Price Index | Tuesday, Feb. 14, 8:30 am, et |
Up 0.1%, Core up 0.4% |
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates. |
| Retail Sales | Wednesday, Feb. 15, 8:30 am, et |
Down 1.1% | Important. A measure of consumer demand. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Industrial Production | Wednesday, Feb. 15, 9:15 am, et |
Down 0.7% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Capacity Utilization | Wednesday, Feb. 15, 9:15 am, et |
78.8% | Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates. |
| NAHB Housing Index | Wednesday, Feb. 15, 10:00 am, et |
35 | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family housing. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Housing Starts | Thursday, Feb. 16, 8:30 am, et |
1.382M | Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Producer Price Index | Thursday, Feb. 16, 8:30 am, et |
Down 0.5%, Core up 0.1% |
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Feb. 16, 8:30 am, et |
196K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Leading Economic Indicators | Friday, Feb. 17, 10:00 am, et |
Down 0.8% | Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
Rate Pressure
Mortgage interest rates are higher lately as inflation is significantly above the Fed’s 2% goal. The Fed is expected to raise rates March 22nd and the odds of a hike currently exceed 93%. The February Fed statement indicated, “Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated” and that there remains “elevated global uncertainty.” Data in the weeks ahead is likely to direct interest rate movements as the Fed stated, “The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.” An expanding economy with a tight labor market paves the way for rate hikes sooner rather than later. Now is a great time to take advantage of rates at these levels.
