![Mortgage Investors Group in [Dynamic1]](../assets/images/mortgage-investors-group.svg)
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which held rates steady. Rates improved the beginning of the week, were flat mid-week, and had a slight negative bias Thursday and Friday. Stocks improved this week, with major U.S. indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and generally positive economic data. Leading economic indicators fell 0.3% vs the expected 0.2% decline. Existing home sales were 3.93M vs 4.01M. Weekly jobless claims were 217K vs 227K. Durable goods orders fell 9.3% vs the expected 10.8% decline. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged despite the up and down trading.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| FHFA House Price Index | Tuesday, July 29, 10:00 am, et | Down 0.2% | oderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, July 29, 10:00 am, et | 95.5 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| ADP Employment | Wednesday, July 30, 8:30 am, et | 75K | Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates. |
| Q2 GDP | Wednesday, July 30, 8:30 am, et | Up 2.5% | Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Fed Meeting Adjourns | Wednesday, July 30, 2:15 pm, et | No rate change | Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting. |
| Personal Income and Outlays | Thursday, July 31, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2%, Up 0.4% | Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| PCE Core Inflation | Thursday, July 31, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.3% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
| Q2 Employment Cost Index | Thursday, July 31, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.8 | Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Employment | Friday, Aug. 1, 8:30 am, et | 4.2%, Payrolls +102K | Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
Income and Outlays
The personal income and outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of future consumer demand. The personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and salaries. The outlays component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services. Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into consumer economic standing and consumption. The report is closely watched as the consumer remains a vital component of the US economy. All of the release this week have the potential to move the financial markets. Now is a good time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at their current levels to avoid market volatility.
